2026-04-28T15:44:08Zhttps://riubu.ubu.es/oai/request

oai:riubu.ubu.es:10259/39262024-05-13T07:27:00Zcom_10259_3830com_10259_5086com_10259_2604col_10259_3832

Hassan, Samer 80af0a47-421f-4da1-9fca-f035fd27ed8f 500 Arroyo, Javier e227c8b9-aa4e-4860-af4f-9b61a55a243b 500 Galán Ordax, José Manuel 188 500 0000-0003-3360-7602 Antunes, Luis 583dd13e-4575-4a01-ab0c-54425e71c4f8 500 Pavón Mestras, Juan b404a30e-aa47-4b09-a8a6-641559408274 500 2016-02-12T08:10:48Z 2016-02-12T08:10:48Z 2013-06 1460-7425 http://hdl.handle.net/10259/3926 This paper presents a set of guidelines, imported from the field of forecasting, that can help social simulation and, more specifically, agent-based modelling practitioners to improve the predictive performance and the robustness of their models. The presentation starts with a discussion on the current debate on prediction in social processes, followed by an overview of the recent experience and lessons learnt from the field of forecasting. This is the basis to define standard practices when developing agent-based models under the perspective of forecasting experimentation. In this context, the guidelines are structured in six categories that correspond to key issues that should be taken into account when building a predictor agent-based model: the modelling process, the data adequacy, the space of solutions, the expert involvement, the validation, and the dissemination and replication. The application of these guidelines is illustrated with an existing agent-based model. We conclude by tackling some intrinsic difficulties that agent-based modelling often faces when dealing with prediction models. project Social Ambient Assisting Living - Methods (SociAAL), supported by Spanish Council for Science and Innovation, with grant TIN2011-28335-C02-01 and the Spanish MICINN project CSD2010-00034 (SimulPast CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010). We also thank the support from the Programa de Creación y Consolidación de Grupos de Investigación UCM-BSCH, GR35/10-A (921354) application/pdf eng SimSoc Consortium Journal of artificial societies and social simulation. 2013, V. 16, n. 3 http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/16/3/13.html info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/TIN2011- 28335-C02-01 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//MICINN/CSD2010-00034 Forecasting Guidelines Prediction Agent-Based modelling Modelling process Social simulation Industrial management Gestión de empresas Asking the Oracle: introducing forecasting principles into agent-based modelling info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess THUMBNAIL Hassan-JASSS_2013.pdf.jpg Hassan-JASSS_2013.pdf.jpg IM Thumbnail image/jpeg 4790 https://riubu.ubu.es/bitstream/10259/3926/4/Hassan-JASSS_2013.pdf.jpg b3b3e4ca87479af781aaf8a049ecf1c7 MD5 4 ORIGINAL Hassan-JASSS_2013.pdf Hassan-JASSS_2013.pdf application/pdf 238856 https://riubu.ubu.es/bitstream/10259/3926/1/Hassan-JASSS_2013.pdf f636f557b3107117c79c08f09c9ed60c MD5 1 LICENSE license.txt license.txt text/plain; charset=utf-8 1362 https://riubu.ubu.es/bitstream/10259/3926/2/license.txt 5d013bfa6e473ff0db22cd82a4d71a70 MD5 2 TEXT Hassan-JASSS_2013.pdf.txt Hassan-JASSS_2013.pdf.txt Extracted text text/plain 84138 https://riubu.ubu.es/bitstream/10259/3926/3/Hassan-JASSS_2013.pdf.txt a24046195b15761477c800598e9f87a5 MD5 3 10259/3926 oai:riubu.ubu.es:10259/3926 2024-05-13 09:27:00.946 Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Burgos bubrep@ubu.es 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