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oai:riubu.ubu.es:10259/42132021-11-02T12:04:25Zcom_10259_3830com_10259_5086com_10259_2604col_10259_4210

Acebes, Fernando 19992449-dbf4-4aee-85e0-af5a8348523c 500 Pajares Gutiérrez, Javier 3274fb0a-b963-418f-a8d3-c11d57c467c0 500 Galán Ordax, José Manuel 188 500 López Paredes, Adolfo e3b3e06d-0679-4e04-84f3-9d7fecfe1953 500 2016-08-31T10:37:46Z 2016-08-31T10:37:46Z 2014-03 1877-0428 http://hdl.handle.net/10259/4213 10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.038 27th IPMA World Congress For years, many research studies have focused on programming projects, assuming a deterministic environment and complete task information. However, during the project performance, schedule may be subject to uncertainty which can lead to significant modifications. This fact has led to an increasing scientific literature in the field. In this article we consider the presence of an uncertainty of seasonal type (e.g. meteorological) that affects some of the activities that comprise the project. We discuss how the project risk can be affected by such uncertainty, depending on the start date of the project. By means of Monte Carlo simulation, we compute the statistical distribution functions of project duration at the end of the project. Then, we represent the variability of the project through the so-called Project Risk Baseline. In addition, we examine various sensitivity metrics - Criticality, Cruciality, Schedule Sensitivity Index -. We use them to prioritize each one of the activities of the project depending on its start date. In the last part of the study we demonstrate the relative importance of project tasks must consider a combined version of these three sensitivity measures. the project SPPORT: “Computational Models for Strategic Project Portfolio Management”, supported by the Regional Government of Castile and Leon (Spain) with grant VA056A12-2 application/pdf eng Elsevier Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. 2014, V. 119, p. 329-338 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.038 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/JCyL/VA056A12-2 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Uncertainty and variability Risk Management Monte Carlo Simulation Criticality Schedule Risk Baseline Ingeniería civil Civil engineering Exploring the influence of seasonal uncertainty in project risk management info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion ORIGINAL Acebes-PSBS_2014.pdf Acebes-PSBS_2014.pdf application/pdf 281330 https://riubu.ubu.es/bitstream/10259/4213/1/Acebes-PSBS_2014.pdf a769d76d57b94a128b858e3c39868118 MD5 1 LICENSE license.txt license.txt text/plain; charset=utf-8 1362 https://riubu.ubu.es/bitstream/10259/4213/5/license.txt 5d013bfa6e473ff0db22cd82a4d71a70 MD5 5 TEXT Acebes-PSBS_2014.pdf.txt Acebes-PSBS_2014.pdf.txt Extracted text text/plain 27763 https://riubu.ubu.es/bitstream/10259/4213/6/Acebes-PSBS_2014.pdf.txt 854f925767cc41cb7d322089a85521cb MD5 6 THUMBNAIL Acebes-PSBS_2014.pdf.jpg Acebes-PSBS_2014.pdf.jpg IM Thumbnail image/jpeg 3170 https://riubu.ubu.es/bitstream/10259/4213/7/Acebes-PSBS_2014.pdf.jpg b805e3b20bc2f7672a5c16b55b9535b8 MD5 7 CC-LICENSE license_rdf license_rdf application/rdf+xml; charset=utf-8 40 https://riubu.ubu.es/bitstream/10259/4213/8/license_rdf 87819d879414782baee7b61c8ce3c131 MD5 8 10259/4213 oai:riubu.ubu.es:10259/4213 2021-11-02 13:04:25.289 Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Burgos bubrep@ubu.es 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