2026-06-19T21:11:56Zhttps://riubu.ubu.es/oai/request

oai:riubu.ubu.es:10259/39262024-05-13T07:27:00Zcom_10259_3830com_10259_5086com_10259_2604col_10259_3832

Hassan, Samer Arroyo, Javier Galán Ordax, José Manuel Antunes, Luis Pavón Mestras, Juan 2016-02-12T08:10:48Z 2016-02-12T08:10:48Z 2013-06 1460-7425 http://hdl.handle.net/10259/3926 This paper presents a set of guidelines, imported from the field of forecasting, that can help social simulation and, more specifically, agent-based modelling practitioners to improve the predictive performance and the robustness of their models. The presentation starts with a discussion on the current debate on prediction in social processes, followed by an overview of the recent experience and lessons learnt from the field of forecasting. This is the basis to define standard practices when developing agent-based models under the perspective of forecasting experimentation. In this context, the guidelines are structured in six categories that correspond to key issues that should be taken into account when building a predictor agent-based model: the modelling process, the data adequacy, the space of solutions, the expert involvement, the validation, and the dissemination and replication. The application of these guidelines is illustrated with an existing agent-based model. We conclude by tackling some intrinsic difficulties that agent-based modelling often faces when dealing with prediction models. project Social Ambient Assisting Living - Methods (SociAAL), supported by Spanish Council for Science and Innovation, with grant TIN2011-28335-C02-01 and the Spanish MICINN project CSD2010-00034 (SimulPast CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010). We also thank the support from the Programa de Creación y Consolidación de Grupos de Investigación UCM-BSCH, GR35/10-A (921354) application/pdf eng SimSoc Consortium Journal of artificial societies and social simulation. 2013, V. 16, n. 3 http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/16/3/13.html info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/TIN2011- 28335-C02-01 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//MICINN/CSD2010-00034 Forecasting Guidelines Prediction Agent-Based modelling Modelling process Social simulation Industrial management Gestión de empresas Asking the Oracle: introducing forecasting principles into agent-based modelling info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess