2024-03-29T05:38:00Zhttps://riubu.ubu.es/oai/requestoai:riubu.ubu.es:10259/39272022-04-29T12:02:47Zcom_10259_3830com_10259_5086com_10259_2604col_10259_3832
2018-10-01T02:45:06Z
urn:hdl:10259/3927
Stochastic earned value analysis using Monte Carlo simulation and statistical learning techniques
Acebes, Fernando
Pereda, María
Poza, David J.
Pajares Gutiérrez, Javier
Galán Ordax, José Manuel
Project management
Earned value management
Project control
Monte Carlo simulation
Project risk management
Statistical learning
Anomaly Detection
The aim of this paper is to describe a new integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies. More specifically, the approach uses extensive Monte Carlo simulation to obtain information about the expected behavior of the project. This dataset is exploited in several ways using different statistical learning methodologies in a structured fashion. Initially, simulations are used to detect if project deviations are a consequence of the expected variability using Anomaly Detection algorithms. If the project follows this expected variability, probabilities of success in cost and time and expected cost and total duration of the project can be estimated using classification and regression approaches
2016-02-12T09:10:38Z
2018-10-01T02:45:06Z
2015-10
info:eu-repo/semantics/article
0263-7863
http://hdl.handle.net/10259/3927
eng
International journal of project management. 2015, V. 33, n. 7, p. 1597–1609
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2015.06.012
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MICINN/CSD2010-00034
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/JCyL/VA056A12-2
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Elsevier