RT info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
T1 Exploring the influence of seasonal uncertainty in project risk management
A1 Acebes, Fernando
A1 Pajares Gutiérrez, Javier
A1 Galán Ordax, José Manuel
A1 López Paredes, Adolfo
K1 Uncertainty and variability
K1 Risk Management
K1 Monte Carlo Simulation
K1 Criticality
K1 Schedule Risk Baseline
K1 Ingeniería civil
K1 Civil engineering
AB For years, many research studies have focused on programming projects, assuming a deterministic environment and completetask information. However, during the project performance, schedule may be subject to uncertainty which can lead tosignificant modifications. This fact has led to an increasing scientific literature in the field. In this article we consider thepresence of an uncertainty of seasonal type (e.g. meteorological) that affects some of the activities that comprise the project. Wediscuss how the project risk can be affected by such uncertainty, depending on the start date of the project. By means of MonteCarlo simulation, we compute the statistical distribution functions of project duration at the end of the project. Then, werepresent the variability of the project through the so-called Project Risk Baseline.In addition, we examine various sensitivity metrics - Criticality, Cruciality, Schedule Sensitivity Index -. We use them toprioritize each one of the activities of the project depending on its start date. In the last part of the study we demonstrate therelative importance of project tasks must consider a combined version of these three sensitivity measures.
PB Elsevier
SN 1877-0428
YR 2014
FD 2014-03
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10259/4213
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10259/4213
LA eng
NO 27th IPMA World Congress
NO the project SPPORT: “Computational Models for Strategic Project PortfolioManagement”, supported by the Regional Government of Castile and Leon (Spain) with grant VA056A12-2
DS Repositorio Institucional de la Universidad de Burgos
RD 23-abr-2024