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dc.contributor.authorHassan, Samer
dc.contributor.authorArroyo, Javier
dc.contributor.authorGalán Ordax, José Manuel 
dc.contributor.authorAntunes, Luis
dc.contributor.authorPavón Mestras, Juan
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-12T08:10:48Z
dc.date.available2016-02-12T08:10:48Z
dc.date.issued2013-06
dc.identifier.issn1460-7425
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10259/3926
dc.description.abstractThis paper presents a set of guidelines, imported from the field of forecasting, that can help social simulation and, more specifically, agent-based modelling practitioners to improve the predictive performance and the robustness of their models. The presentation starts with a discussion on the current debate on prediction in social processes, followed by an overview of the recent experience and lessons learnt from the field of forecasting. This is the basis to define standard practices when developing agent-based models under the perspective of forecasting experimentation. In this context, the guidelines are structured in six categories that correspond to key issues that should be taken into account when building a predictor agent-based model: the modelling process, the data adequacy, the space of solutions, the expert involvement, the validation, and the dissemination and replication. The application of these guidelines is illustrated with an existing agent-based model. We conclude by tackling some intrinsic difficulties that agent-based modelling often faces when dealing with prediction models.en
dc.description.sponsorshipproject Social Ambient Assisting Living - Methods (SociAAL), supported by Spanish Council for Science and Innovation, with grant TIN2011-28335-C02-01 and the Spanish MICINN project CSD2010-00034 (SimulPast CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010). We also thank the support from the Programa de Creación y Consolidación de Grupos de Investigación UCM-BSCH, GR35/10-A (921354)en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoenges
dc.publisherSimSoc Consortiumen
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of artificial societies and social simulation. 2013, V. 16, n. 3en
dc.subjectForecastingen
dc.subjectGuidelinesen
dc.subjectPredictionen
dc.subjectAgent-Based modellingen
dc.subjectModelling processen
dc.subjectSocial simulationen
dc.subject.otherIndustrial managementen
dc.subject.otherEmpresas-Gestiónes
dc.titleAsking the Oracle: introducing forecasting principles into agent-based modellingen
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/16/3/13.html
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO/TIN2011- 28335-C02-01
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement//MICINN/CSD2010-00034
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionen


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