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dc.contributor.authorAcebes, Fernando
dc.contributor.authorPajares Gutiérrez, Javier
dc.contributor.authorGalán Ordax, José Manuel 
dc.contributor.authorLópez Paredes, Adolfo
dc.date.accessioned2016-08-31T10:37:46Z
dc.date.available2016-08-31T10:37:46Z
dc.date.issued2014-03
dc.identifier.issn1877-0428
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10259/4213
dc.description27th IPMA World Congress
dc.description.abstractFor years, many research studies have focused on programming projects, assuming a deterministic environment and complete task information. However, during the project performance, schedule may be subject to uncertainty which can lead to significant modifications. This fact has led to an increasing scientific literature in the field. In this article we consider the presence of an uncertainty of seasonal type (e.g. meteorological) that affects some of the activities that comprise the project. We discuss how the project risk can be affected by such uncertainty, depending on the start date of the project. By means of Monte Carlo simulation, we compute the statistical distribution functions of project duration at the end of the project. Then, we represent the variability of the project through the so-called Project Risk Baseline. In addition, we examine various sensitivity metrics - Criticality, Cruciality, Schedule Sensitivity Index -. We use them to prioritize each one of the activities of the project depending on its start date. In the last part of the study we demonstrate the relative importance of project tasks must consider a combined version of these three sensitivity measures.en
dc.description.sponsorshipthe project SPPORT: “Computational Models for Strategic Project Portfolio Management”, supported by the Regional Government of Castile and Leon (Spain) with grant VA056A12-2en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoenges
dc.publisherElsevieren
dc.relation.ispartofProcedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. 2014, V. 119, p. 329-338en
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0
dc.subjectUncertainty and variabilityen
dc.subjectRisk Managementen
dc.subjectMonte Carlo Simulationen
dc.subjectCriticalityen
dc.subjectSchedule Risk Baselineen
dc.subject.otherIngeniería civiles
dc.subject.otherCivil engineeringen
dc.titleExploring the influence of seasonal uncertainty in project risk managementen
dc.typeinfo:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
dc.rights.accessRightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.relation.publisherversionhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.038
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.038
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/JCyL/VA056A12-2
dc.type.hasVersioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionen


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