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Título : Exploring the influence of seasonal uncertainty in project risk management
Autor : Acebes, Fernando
Pajares Gutiérrez, Javier
Galán Ordax, José Manuel
López Paredes, Adolfo
Publicado en: Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. 2014, V. 119, p. 329-338
Editorial : Elsevier
Fecha de publicación : mar-2014
ISSN : 1877-0428
DOI: 10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.038
Descripción : 27th IPMA World Congress
Resumen : For years, many research studies have focused on programming projects, assuming a deterministic environment and complete task information. However, during the project performance, schedule may be subject to uncertainty which can lead to significant modifications. This fact has led to an increasing scientific literature in the field. In this article we consider the presence of an uncertainty of seasonal type (e.g. meteorological) that affects some of the activities that comprise the project. We discuss how the project risk can be affected by such uncertainty, depending on the start date of the project. By means of Monte Carlo simulation, we compute the statistical distribution functions of project duration at the end of the project. Then, we represent the variability of the project through the so-called Project Risk Baseline. In addition, we examine various sensitivity metrics - Criticality, Cruciality, Schedule Sensitivity Index -. We use them to prioritize each one of the activities of the project depending on its start date. In the last part of the study we demonstrate the relative importance of project tasks must consider a combined version of these three sensitivity measures.
Palabras clave: Uncertainty and variability
Risk Management
Monte Carlo Simulation
Criticality
Schedule Risk Baseline
Materia: Ingeniería civil
Civil engineering
Licencia: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0
URI : http://hdl.handle.net/10259/4213
Versión del editor: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2014.03.038
Aparece en las colecciones: Ponencias/Comunicaciones de congresos GIO

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