Thinking the unthinkable: The design of disruptive visions for land use and transport integration

Abstract

Transport Scenario-Building is a well-established methodology to investigate strategic decisions for cities and its transport systems. It is often used to examine different futures where there is considerable uncertainty or where the business-as-usual is no longer appropriate. While the use of participatory approaches in Transport Scenario-Building has resulted in more democratic and implementable outcomes, the usefulness of those approaches is limited when the generation of disruptive transport futures and unusual policy solutions are considered. This paper addresses the abovementioned issue by presenting a participatory approach aimed to obtain disruptive visions on land use and transport by 2050. The context of the Metropolitan Area of Madrid (Spain) is taken as case study. The novel approach incorporates disruptive factors about city futures - “wild cards”- during the participatory visioning process, triggering an unconventional thinking from participants. First, a total of 139 people were engaged by using semi-structured interviews on the future of land use and transport in the case study. Each semi-structured interview explored the desired future for each participant as well as disruptive futures according to “wild cards” previously established. Second, responses were transcribed, coded, and analysed resulting in seven different future narratives. Third, a group of 20 experts in innovation and strategic thinking evaluated the disruptive level of each future narrative with respect to a business-as-usual scenario. The paper shows the methodological process, the future narratives obtained, and reflects on the capacity of this participatory approach to generate disruptive future visions for land use and transport.